3 November 2026
Botswana’s Minerals and Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo has expressed cautious optimism about improving demand for natural diamonds in the United States and India, although weak prices continue to constrain the industry’s recovery.
Kenewendo cited growth of about 5%–6% in the US market, with double-digit growth recorded in July, while pointing to improving consumer interest in natural diamonds in India and the Far East. She did not disclose the underlying market indicators.
“These are comforting. We are cautiously optimistic about the industry,” Kenewendo was quoted as saying by African Mining Market on November 2.
She said the intent to purchase natural diamonds in India and the Far East stood at about 25%–26%, compared with 17% for laboratory-grown stones, without specifying how the figures were measured. Stated purchase intentions do not necessarily translate into completed sales. Kenewendo first pointed to early signs of a demand recovery in June, when she said Botswana would maintain supply discipline after working through its rough diamond inventory.
De Beers’ Botswana operations produced 15.13mn carats in the nine months to September 2026, up 14% from 13.25mn a year earlier, although third-quarter output fell 20% to 4.83mn carats, primarily because of planned plant maintenance at Orapa.
Parent company Anglo American (LSE: AAL; JSE: AGL) said in its October 20 production report that rough diamond trading conditions showed signs of stability during the third quarter, with consumer demand improving in the United States and India.
However, De Beers’ consolidated average realised diamond price fell 37% to $97 per carat in the first nine months of 2026, while its average rough price index declined 18%. The gap between the two largely reflects a shift in the sales mix, after the comparative period included a higher share of high-value goods. Consolidated rough diamond sales value fell 15% to $2.04bn.
Industry data point to a partial recovery concentrated in smaller polished goods. The RapNet Diamond Index for 0.30-carat stones rose 3.2% in September and 15.1% so far in 2026, while the 1-carat index gained 0.3%, its second consecutive monthly increase, Rapaport reported. US retailers were actively buying, while trading in India was subdued during religious festivals.
Rough demand has since cooled. De Beers held prices stable at a small October sight in Botswana, as customers who had bought heavily after a July price cut needed few new goods ahead of India’s Diwali shutdown, Rapaport reported on November 2.
Independent diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky wrote on October 19 that the natural diamond industry’s future lies in a smaller market “built on luxury positioning, tighter supply and renewed consumer demand”.
Natural diamond producers continue to face competition from cheaper laboratory-grown stones, which Anglo American said were still weighing on demand for lower-value natural diamonds, as well as weak Chinese jewellery demand and accumulated inventories.
Botswana’s economy remains particularly vulnerable because diamonds account for roughly a third of government revenue and about 80% of merchandise export earnings. The economy contracted 0.7% in 2025 after shrinking 2.8% in 2024, according to Statistics Botswana, as real value added in mining and quarrying fell 14%. The downturn has also complicated Anglo American’s planned sale of its 85% stake in De Beers. Botswana, which owns the remaining 15%, has been weighing an increase in its holding to 25%.
The Ministry of Finance expects economic growth of 3.8% in 2026, revised up from 3.1%, and 4.1% in 2027, supported by stronger mining activity, according to the Bank of Botswana’s October 29 monetary policy statement.
Real gross domestic product expanded 3.7% in the 12 months to June 2026, compared with a 2.9% contraction in the preceding comparable period, the central bank said.
Botswana is also seeking to diversify beyond diamonds through projects including MMG’s (HKEX: 1208) approximately $900mn Khoemacau copper expansion, approved in December 2025 and now under construction. The project targets annual production capacity of 130,000 tonnes of copper contained in concentrate, with first concentrate from the expansion expected in the first half of 2028.
De Beers transferred BWP1bn ($73mn) in October to Botswana’s Diamonds for Development Fund, a vehicle chaired by former African Development Bank president Akinwumi Adesina that is intended to invest diamond revenues in industries outside mining. De Beers’ contributions could reach BWP10bn over 10 years, depending on dividends from Debswana.
Annual inflation eased to 7.8% in September from 9.3% in August but remained above the central bank’s 3%–6% objective range. The Bank of Botswana maintained its monetary policy rate at 5.5% on October 29, warning that structural changes in the diamond industry and slow economic diversification continued to constrain growth despite improving mining output.
Source: https://shorturl.at/UpbR2
